8 BILLION
We are heavy on this planet, and we know it. Even though we have hit 8 billion, more people than ever, statistics show that in many countries people are choosing to not have big families. Many countries of the world are barely having a replacement rate of 2 kids. Our decrease in children per adult is concerning. Why? Because we will not have the youth to support the infrastructures, jobs, and elderly populations. The strange thing about today’s 8 billion is that the surge in population isn’t coming from children born, it’s coming from people living longer.
Children born are dropping to below replacement levels in many countries or just barely holding the line. Only a few African countries, Nigeria and Congo, with the biggest surge of 5 or more children per family are growing in population. But even these countries with larger families are having fewer, dropping from 8 to 5. In populated areas, families are dropping from 4 children to 2 children, and in developed nations, it is even less - 2 to 1 or 0.
No, it’s not the children that are pumping up the numbers, it’s that we don’t want to die.
China and Italy are especially struggling with a top-heavy population of many elders per youth. The children of the future will have a hard time fanatically and physically supporting a large elderly population. Medical advancement on a personal level is great to prevent death and help us live, but in a larger sense, it is not serving the whole.
The United States and Europe are insulated from some of the stress of not having youth to fill jobs because of immigration. Many people in their prime are immigrating to these countries which keeps their economies going.
The places where the stress of overpopulation will be felt the most are India and Sub-Sahara Africa. These places will also contain the most youthful populations in the world. How will this look? Only time will tell because Africa is also dealing with an epidemic of Aids. It is estimated that 68% of all people living in Sub-Saharan Africa have Aids. It has lowered the age expectancy among adults by 20 years, intensifying the populations of children and teens without adults.
So on one end of the Earth people have few kids and live long and on the other side of the Earth people have lots of kids and live short lives. Irony.
As we head into the year 2036 when the population will hit 9 billion, we will see in first-world countries many older people and less and less children. If the trends continue, our growth projections will begin to decline. Many places will have heavy populations of grandparents looking after one or two grandkids. There is showing signs of more pet food and pet-friendly establishments as people use pets as stand-ins for kids. This is a mixed bag. Pets are fun but if half of the 8 billion people have pets, that is 4 billion pets. That is a lot of food and poop and has its own impact on wildlife.
We do need to get our populations under control and world models are showing that it is shifting, but are we raising children who are cared for, educated and functional? Most of Sub-Sahara Africa will be loaded with youthful culture but will also be the poorest nations of the world. Poverty, youth, and starvation do not fare well for vibrant cultures but tend to push people into war.
Our Earth is shrinking as our populations bulge. But we seem to be aware of this as we curtail our need to have offspring. The wobbly nature of change makes predictions difficult, but right now our numbers are still going up. Scientists have predicted that the Earth can’t support more than 9 or 10 billion What will happen then? Nigeria is already on the teetering point of being able to feed all its people.
The elderly outnumbering the youth will be solved if we have another epidemic. It would do our bulging population a favor if our older populations stopped living so long. But it will be more likely that the youth will starve to death instead of old people dying. Humanity would be stronger if we could consciously choose to help the youthful nations, but politically it will probably favor the first-world elderly. As we grow older, living past 80 years old, it is highly likely that with few children, elders will be taken care of by Nigerian immigrants.
